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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.