Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August produced no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Kayla Peterson
Kayla Peterson

Lena is a digital strategist with over a decade of experience in tech consulting, passionate about helping businesses adapt to new technologies.